Research

Published

Fisher, B., Leite, F., & Weber, R. (2022). Value Creation, Capture, and Destruction: Hudson Yards and the False Promise of Self-Financing Mega-Projects. Journal of the American Planning Association, 89:1, 134–145. Link

Fisher, B., & Leite, F. (2022). Selling TIF: Positioning Hudson Yards as a project that pays for itself. Cities, 125, 103661. Link

Research in Progress

“Let Delinquency Spiral!”: The Governance of Debt among Low-Income Homeowners in Brazil

Under Review: Working Paper available upon request

Housing debt has long been a precondition for formal homeownership. Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) FAR program, Latin America’s largest social housing initiative, appears to disrupt this model by offering “free housing for the poor”. Yet, despite not involving mortgages, MCMV generates new financial obligations through its condominium structure, which entangle low-income residents into fees and fines which often accumulate and transform into debt. This article uses a case study of the MCMV FAR program in São Paulo, Brazil, to examine how the governance of non-mortgage debt impacts MCMV residents and determines their ability to benefit from this welfare program. Drawing on scraped data from over a thousand condominium-fee lawsuits, regression analysis, and more than thirty in-depth interviews with condominium managers and public officials, this article examines how private actors (síndicos, condominium managers and private guarantor firms) govern condominium fees delinquency. The paper provides evidence that discretionary condominium management and profit-driven debt collection coexist within these developments, producing outcomes that range from debt tolerance and negotiation to housing dispossession and eviction. It concludes that these private actors function as brokers of the welfare state, ultimately shaping who experiences housing precarity or secures stable housing.

Housing Wealth as Welfare: Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in Cash-Out Refinancing

with Carolina Reid

Under Review: Working Paper available upon request

This paper examines cash-out refinancing as a mechanism through which U.S. borrowers mobilize housing wealth in the absence of a robust welfare regime, and the racial and class disparities that shape access to and outcomes from using this financial product. Using data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and the National Survey of Mortgage Originations (NSMO), we show that households with higher debt-to-income ratios, lower incomes, those that are asset poor or who have experience a financial shock are significantly more likely to opt for a cash-out refinance over a rate refinance. Our analysis further shows that although reported uses of cash-out refinances vary, most funds are directed toward paying bills – particularly for those experiencing asset poverty or who have had a negative financial shock – demonstrating its role as a short-term safety net. We also show that interest and delinquency rates for cash-out refinance mortgages are the highest for Black borrowers, with implications for long-term wealth building. We argue that cash-out refinancing in the United States functions as a privatized form of welfare that can provide financial security and consumption smoothing over the life course, but that it also reflects and potentially amplifies racial and class wealth inequalities.

Land Value Capture and Air Rights: Evidence from São Paulo

with Gharad Bryan, Caterina Soto-Vieira, and Nick Tsivanidis

Working Paper available upon request

Cities across the developing world struggle to finance infrastructure and manage rapid urban growth. Land value capture (LVC) offers a promising solution, allowing governments to recover part of the land value increases generated by public action and reinvest them in urban improvements. São Paulo provides a unique setting to study the effects and the efficiency of LVC, having implemented two distinct instruments that differ in design, scope, and redistributive capacity. We assemble a novel dataset tracking every real-estate development in the city since 2000—from land acquisition to unit sales—combining administrative records, survey data, and information on the use of air rights. Using this rich dataset, we analyze how LVC instruments shape developers’ behavior, market structure, and the incidence of land-use regulation, shedding light on the efficiency and equity implications of capturing land value as a tool for financing urban infrastructure.